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The Birthday Problem

FOG: Footsteps of Ghosts :: Out of Character :: General Discussion :: Forum Games

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The Birthday Problem

Post by SpaceWheeler2.0 on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:01 pm

Okay, so probability theory says that any group of 23 people has a 50% chance that there is one pair of individuals that share a birthday. A group of 57 people has a 99% chance of a pair.

So, I need the first 23 people who look at this thread to simply post their birth date. If you don't feel like sharing with everyone, I'll at least need you to share with me in a PM. I promise that I will not tell! If we're lucky, maybe we can go further for a group of 57 or more, and see what happens...


Mine is: October 21st

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by MoiraofWords on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:02 pm

June 24. Booya.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Bird of Hermes on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:02 pm

Mine is November 30th.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Gadreille on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:03 pm

October 12th

(my mother-in-law's birthday is October 21st!)

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Ten on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:06 pm

August 21st.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Guilty Carrion on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:56 pm

September 20th!

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by wakeangel on Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:23 am



September 21st! ~high fives Plague~ So close!

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Chainlinc3 on Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:45 am

November 3rd!

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Miss Dagger on Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:00 am

May 23rd.

(My stepmother's birthday is the 21st August.)

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Lara on Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:44 pm

October 10th!

(-brags about her birth date for this year in particular-)

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Blackrock on Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:17 am

November 28th.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Ysopet on Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:59 am

September 10th

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Dax on Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:59 am

November 11th.

High five for everyone who has their birthday in November. November Rules

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Loki on Mon Aug 09, 2010 1:38 pm

TimeOfTheEye wrote:August 21st.


High Five

August 21st for me too!

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Chainlinc3 on Mon Aug 09, 2010 2:56 pm

An alternative conclusion: more babies are born on the 21st of all months. We had 4 21st birthdays just in this sample. Razz

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Dax on Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:47 pm

To further add to what Chainlic3 said, I also think the 21st is magical. There are more posts on the 21st on FoG than on any other day!

That is if memory serves correctly. Just don't quote me on that.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by MoiraofWords on Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:50 pm

That just may be the reason for so many birthdays matching up. They are all 21's :O. Hmm.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by SpaceWheeler2.0 on Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:41 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

So, I wasn't going to check the mathematics (too lazy this morning), but I estimated from the graph that getting a match in a group of 14 people is about 20%, and we needed 14 people to find a match.

Now, I've taken classes on research and statistics for my Psychology degree, so I'm not going to say we can make any sort of conclusions. All we can say is that we had a match. A group of 14 people is hardly enough evidence to suggest that more people have birthdays on the 21st.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Blackrock on Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:48 pm

I'm not too big on statistics, but making conclusions sounds pretty moot to me. Already, this forum represents a certain group of people, with similar interests. This isn't random, it's already been selected. So the most we'll get out is how many fledgling authors have birthdays on the same date.

Or I could just be spewing crap, /shrug.

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Silvan Arrow on Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:56 pm

My birthday is January 6th. I guess I'm breaking the 21st mold?

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Sunwolf007 on Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:44 pm

Beware the ides of ... August?

Wait that can't be right. [looks at birth certificate] Yep 15th of August right in the ides of August. So yeah. Beware! Laughing

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by UnfortunateBountyHunter on Thu Jan 13, 2011 5:55 pm

June 11th

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Kalon Ordona II on Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:32 am

Mine is November 3rd.

A match!!
Chainlinc3! Woot! xD
High Five

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:40 pm

January 29

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Re: The Birthday Problem

Post by xraineyesx on Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:28 am

December 3.

This is really interesting. Smile

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